NABE Panel Members are Confused
Three fourths of National Association of Business Economists (NABE) panel members expect a recession by 2021, with 42% expecting it next year, 25% in 2021, and 10% this year. At the same time a majority of panelists expect one to two rate increases from the Federal Reserve Bank in 2019, despite the markets expecting zero and the Fed signaling it will hit the pause button on its balance sheet contraction program. Inflation has not been an issue with the Consumer Price Index up 1.6% over the past twelve months.
With low inflation and tepid growth expectations, there isn't a good reason to expect the Fed to raise interest rates this year.